A blue flame appears to be rising in Canada and if the outcome from recent provincial elections is any indication, a lot will have to happen between now and October for Justin Trudeau to remain in majority territory.
In fact, at the moment, the best case scenario for the Trudeau Liberals would be a minority outcome, allowing them to retain power and hold back Conservative Andrew Scheer and well...his lack of an actual platform.
You see, in 2019 alone, we will be witnessing six elections on the provincial level, with three already over. The outcome for the three has been Conservative, Conservative and Liberal with discontent and anger being directed at the Prime Minister for issues both old and new.
While Conservatives will tell you this is the beginning of a sweep, I do not agree.
Truthfully, we are witnessing a blue flame. Why a flame? Well, a flame is not as evenly distributed as a wave or sweep would allow you to imagine. At its centre, the flame is hottest, with a consistent burn that fuels the heat around it. While it spreads out however, the flame lightens, but maintains the stance of contesting everything it comes into contact with.
Andrew Scheer and his provincial counterparts represent this flame based on the severity of their platforms and the consistencies of their message.
Take Alberta and Ontario for example, both provinces went into an election with the perfect ratio of kindling to spark a flame. In both cases, you have party leaders, who really didn't offer a platform of solutions to these problems, but were consistent in their message to fight everything in order to return people to a sense of normal, even if that meant fighting change itself.
The flame though is not consistent, so while the conditions may be there for change, the results have not remained the same throughout. In Prince Edward Island, a three way race emerged from a Liberal majority that has shocked everyone. What was more shocking to me was the fact that all leaders involved seemed to actually get a long, which was not the case in Ontario or Alberta.
The recent election in Newfoundland and Labrador further cements this, with the Liberals hanging on for dear life against a supposed Conservative sweep.
What is obvious is that people want change. They are seeing the landscape around them change and the effects of the world around us are changing their perspective accordingly. With climate change becoming more of a crisis by the day and populism on the rise, people are looking for solutions and answers to the fear of the uncertainty created.
When people become afraid, they usually either become vulnerable to persuasion or angry and erratic. Leading up to October, I believe we are going to see a good mixture of both expressed from the electorate.
With that being said though, I still have yet to see anything come from the Conservatives that shows me they possess the answers and solutions people actually need. If anything, the Green Party is moving up the ranks and accomplishing something I thought originally was still a decade away, they are winning and causing a split in the vote.
While the Greens usually employ right wing economic policies, they are attracting supporters from the NDP and even the Liberals, who want change from the mainstream parties and see nothing new coming from the Conservatives.
There wont be a blue sweep or wave come October though, we are going to witness the flame either grow or weaken depending on how Andrew Scheer and his party conducts themselves and how well Trudeau can complete his damage control from recent events.
What definitely has to happen though, is an increase in voter turn out, as we are still sitting in the low 40's and this does not help the situation.
The most important poll will occur on election night and one can only hope that the party in the lead is prepared to continue serving Canadians with more than just complaints and accusations, while coming up with solutions required today for the problems of tomorrow.
Canadians deserve better than a platform derived from the very hate and fear that is fueling our discontent.
-The Political Road Map-
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